44th Manitoba general election

44th Manitoba general election
On or before October 5, 2027
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
 
LIB
Leader Wab Kinew Obby Khan Willard Reaves
Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal
Leader since September 16, 2017 April 26, 2025 September 29, 2025
Leader's seat Fort Rouge Fort Whyte Running in River Heights
Last election 34 seats, 45.63% 22 seats, 41.86% 1 seat, 10.63%
Current seats 34 20 1
Seats needed Steady Increase 9 Increase 28
Incumbent premier

Wab Kinew
New Democratic


The 44th Manitoba general election will be held on or before October 5, 2027,[1] to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba.

Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.[2] As the previous election was held in 2023, the latest possible date for the election is October 5, 2027.[3] The election will be held under first-past-the-post voting.

Current standings

43rd Manitoba Legislature – Movement in seats held up to the election (2023-present)
Party 2023 Gain/(loss) due to Current
Resignation
or death
of MLA		 Left Caucus Removed
from caucus		 By-election
New Democratic 34(2)(1)334
Progressive Conservative 22(2)(1)120
Liberal 11
Independent –112
Total 57(4) –457

Incumbents not standing for re-election

Electoral district MLA Date announced
Turtle Mountain   Doyle Piwniuk[4] November 12, 2025
Steinbach   Kelvin Goertzen[5] December 10, 2025
Springfield-Ritchot   Ron Schuler[6] December 17, 2025
Selkirk   Richard Perchotte[7] March 5, 2026
Red River North   Jeff Wharton[8] May 7, 2026

Timeline

Changes in seats held (2023–present)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Tuxedo May 6, 2024 Heather Stefanson █ PC Resignation[9] July 8, 2024[10] Carla Compton █ New Democratic
Fort Garry September 16, 2024 Mark Wasyliw █ New Democratic Removed from caucus[11] █ Independent
Transcona January 14, 2025 Nello Altomare █ New Democratic Died in office March 18, 2025 Shannon Corbett █ New Democratic
Spruce Woods March 24, 2025 Grant Jackson █ PC Resigned to run federally August 26, 2025 Colleen Robbins █ PC
Dawson Trail March 10, 2026 Bob Lagassé █ PC Left PC Caucus █ Independent
The Pas-Kameesak March 21, 2026 Amanda Lathlin █ New Democratic Died in office July 21, 2026 Jennifer Flett █ New Democratic

2023

2024

  • January 15: Heather Stefanson resigns as Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party
  • January 18: Wayne Ewasko is chosen as the interim leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, replacing outgoing leader Heather Stefanson.
  • April 25: Heather Stefanson announces her intention to vacate her seat on May 6. A by-election was held to fill the seat on June 18.
  • May 6: Heather Stefanson Resigns as the MLA for Tuxedo
  • June 18: New Democrat Carla Compton wins the Tuxedo by-election, gaining the seat from the Progressive Conservatives.
  • September 16: Mark Wasyliw, MLA for Fort Garry, is removed from the NDP caucus and will sit as an independent.

2025

2026

Candidates

† = not seeking re-election
‡ = running for re-election in different constituency
italics indicates contestant for nomination or declared interest
bold indicates party leader

Northern Manitoba

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
NDPPCLiberalKeystoneGreen
Flin Flon Tom Lindsey
Keewatinook Ian Bushie
Swan River Rick Wowchuk[16] Rick Wowchuk
The Pas-Kameesak Jennifer Flett
Thompson Eric Redhead

Westman/Parkland

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
NDPPCLiberalKeystoneGreenIndependent
Agassiz Jodie Byram[16] Jodie Byram
Turtle Mountain Rick Pauls[16] Mark Custance[16] Daryl Van Cauwenberghe[16] Doyle Piwniuk†
Brandon East Glen Simard[16] [17] Robert Blake[18] Glen Simard
Brandon West Cora Dupuis[16] Wayne Balcaen[16] Wayne Balcaen
Dauphin Ron Kostyshyn[16] Ron Kostyshyn
Riding Mountain Greg Nesbitt[16] Greg Nesbitt
Spruce Woods Colleen Robbins[16] Colleen Robbins

Central Manitoba

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
NDPPCLiberalKeystoneGreen
Borderland Josh Guenter[16] Josh Guenter
Interlake-Gimli Sarah Pinsent-Bardarson[16] Derek Johnson[16] Derek Johnson
Lakeside Trevor King[16] Trevor King
Midland Lauren Stone[16] Lauren Stone
Morden-Winkler Carrie Hiebert[16] Carrie Hiebert
Springfield-Ritchot Adam McAllister[16] Ron Schuler†
Portage la Prairie Jeff Bereza[16] Jeff Bereza

Eastman

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
NDPPCLiberalKeystoneGreenIndependent
Dawson Trail Kyle Waczko[16] Bob Lagassé[16] Bob Lagassé
Lac du Bonnet Wayne Ewasko[16] Wayne Ewasko
La Verendrye Konrad Narth[16] Konrad Narth
Steinbach Michael Zwaagstra[16] Kelvin Goertzen†
Red River North Shaun Jeffrey[16] Jeff Wharton†
Selkirk Anna Mondor[16] Richard Perchotte†

Northwest Winnipeg

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
NDPPCLiberalIndependent
Burrows Diljeet Brar[16] Garry Alejo[16] Diljeet Brar
Kildonan-River East Rachelle Schott[16] Rachelle Schott
McPhillips JD Devgan[16] Serena Klos[16] Alden Novallasca[16] JD Devgan
Point Douglas Bernadette Smith
St. Johns Gerard Madarang[16] Patrick Allard[19] Nahanni Fontaine
The Maples Mintu Sandhu[16] Mintu Sandhu
Tyndall Park Cindy Lamoureux[16] Cindy Lamoureux

Northeast Winnipeg

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenCommunist
Concordia Matt Wiebe[16] Matt Wiebe
Elmwood Jim Maloway[16] Jim Maloway
Radisson Jelynn Dela Cruz[16] Jelynn Dela Cruz
Rossmere Tracy Schmidt[16] Tracy Schmidt
St. Boniface Robert Loiselle[16] Robert Loiselle
Transcona Shannon Corbett[16] Lorene Mann-Baxter[16] Shannon Corbett

West Winnipeg

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreen
Assiniboia Nellie Kennedy[16] Nellie Kennedy
Roblin Kathleen Cook[16] Kathleen Cook
Kirkfield Park Rachel Punzalan[16] Marlon Guy Watts[16] Logan Oxenham
St. James Adrien Sala[16] Adrien Sala
Tuxedo Carla Compton[16] Danial Sprintz[16] Carla Compton

Central Winnipeg

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreenCommunist
Fort Garry Shandi Strong[16] Mark Wasyliw
Fort Rouge Wab Kinew Wab Kinew
Notre Dame Malaya Marcelino
River Heights Mike Moroz[16] Willard Reaves[16] Mike Moroz
Union Station Uzoma Asagwara
Wolseley Lisa Naylor[16] Lisa Naylor

South Winnipeg

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
NDPPCLiberalGreen
Fort Richmond Jennifer Chen
Fort Whyte Obby Khan[16] Ian Duncan[16] Obby Khan
Lagimodière Tyler Blashko[16] Tyler Blashko
Riel Mike Moyes[16] Mike Moyes
Seine River Billie Cross[16] Glen Irvine[16] Jasbir Singh[16] Billie Cross
Southdale Renée Cable[16] Renée Cable
St. Vital Jamie Moses[16] David Hykaway[16] Jamie Moses
Waverley David Pankratz[16] David Pankratz

Opinion polling

Overall Polling with a local regression (LOESS) trend line for each party and a monthly average.
Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2023 election
Polling firm Dates conducted Source NDP PC Liberal Keystone Green Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
Probe Research May 25 – Jun 8, 2026 [p 1][p 2] 55% 32% 8% 2% 2% 2% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 23%
Probe Research Mar 1–17, 2026 [p 3][p 4] 55% 35% 6% 1% 2% 1% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 20%
Probe Research Nov 25 – Dec 10, 2025 [p 5][p 6] 53% 32% 9% 2% 4% 0% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 21%
Angus Reid Nov 26 – Dec 1, 2025 [p 7] 45% 46% 7% – 1% 1% 5% 315 online 1%
September 29, 2025Willard Reaves is elected leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party
Probe Research Sep 4–14, 2025 [p 8] 53% 34% 8% 1% 4% 1% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 19%
Angus Reid Aug 28 – Sep 5, 2025 [p 9][p 10] 48% 41% 10% – 0% 2% 5% 334 online 7%
Probe Research May 28 – Jun 10, 2025 [p 11] 57% 32% 8% 2% 1% 0% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 25%
Canadian Election Study Apr 29 – May 13, 2025 [p 12] 47% 36% 15% – 2% 1% N/A 419 online 11%
April 26, 2025Obby Khan is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party
Probe Research Mar 4–16, 2025 [p 13] 57% 33% 8% 1% 1% 0% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 24%
Probe Research Nov 26 – Dec 10, 2024 [p 14] 53% 34% 6% 2% 2% 2% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 19%
Probe Research Sep 5–15, 2024 [p 15] 56% 34% 4% 3% 1% 1% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 22%
Probe Research May 28 – Jun 9, 2024 [p 16][p 17] 51% 38% 6% 1% 1% 1% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 13%
Probe Research Mar 5–18, 2024 [p 18][p 19] 49% 37% 8% 1% 2% 2% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 12%
Probe Research Nov 22 – Dec 1, 2023 [p 20][p 21] 51% 38% 7% 1% 2% 1% 3.1% 1,000 mixed 13%
2023 general election October 3, 2023 [p 22] 45.63% 41.86% 10.63% 0.77% 0.74% 0.37% — — — 3.77%
Polling firm Dates conducted Source Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
NDP PC Liberal Keystone Green

References

  1. ↑ "Employment in Elections". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved March 18, 2026.
  2. ↑ Elections Act, CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
  3. ↑ CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
  4. ↑ "Turtle Mountain MLA Doyle Piwniuk won't seek re-election". CBC News. November 12, 2025. Retrieved November 14, 2025.
  5. ↑ "Steinbach MLA will not seek nomination for next provincial election". www.mysteinbach.ca. Retrieved December 10, 2025.
  6. ↑ Froese, Ian (December 17, 2025). "Veteran Tory MLA Ron Schuler won't seek re-election". CBC News. Retrieved April 4, 2026.
  7. ↑ "One-term Tory Manitoba MLA announces he won't run again". Winnipeg Free Press. March 5, 2026. Retrieved March 7, 2026.
  8. ↑ "Wharton latest Tory to announce exit from politics".
  9. ↑ "Former Manitoba premier Heather Stefanson resigning as MLA". CBC News. April 25, 2024.
  10. ↑ "2024 Tuxedo By-election". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
  11. ↑ "MLA Mark Wasyliw removed immediately from NDP caucus, claims Premier Kinew is a 'bully'". CBC News. September 16, 2024.
  12. ↑ Hoye, Bryce (October 3, 2023). "Solid NDP win cements Kinew as 1st First Nations premier in Manitoba history". CBC News. Retrieved October 3, 2023.
  13. ↑ The Canadian Press (October 17, 2023). "Lone Manitoba Liberal MLA Cindy Lamoureux named party's interim leader". CBC News. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
  14. ↑ Petz, Sarah (October 18, 2023). "Wab Kinew officially sworn in as Manitoba's 1st First Nations premier". CBC News. Retrieved October 18, 2023.
  15. ↑ "Former Blue Bomber Willard Reaves named new leader of Manitoba Liberal Party". CBC News. September 29, 2025. Retrieved September 30, 2025.
  16. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 "Candidates". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved August 18, 2026.
  17. ↑ Modified, Abiola Odutola Last (November 9, 2025). "Kinew names Simard as first NDP candidate for 2027". Brandon Sun. Retrieved February 3, 2026.
  18. ↑ Odutola, Abiola (August 24, 2026). "Tories choose Blake in Brandon East". The Brandon Sun. FP Canadian Newspapers. Retrieved August 24, 2026.
  19. ↑ Hoye, Bruce (January 12, 2026). "Manitoba Tories suspend board member over online comments following fatal ICE shooting". CBC News. Retrieved August 18, 2026.

Opinion poll sources

  1. ↑ "Progressive Conservative Support Down Slightly in Manitoba (June 2026 Provincial Politics)". Probe Research. June 18, 2026. Retrieved June 19, 2026.
  2. ↑ "Data Tables" (PDF). Probe Research. June 18, 2026. Retrieved June 19, 2026.
  3. ↑ "NDP Remains Very Popular, With Glimmers of Hope for the PCs (March 2026 Provincial Politics)". Probe Research. March 20, 2026. Retrieved April 30, 2026.
  4. ↑ "Omni 2603 ES prov tables.spo" (PDF). Probe Research. March 20, 2026. Retrieved April 30, 2026.
  5. ↑ "Manitoba's Political Scene Ends 2025 On A Stable Note". December 19, 2025. Retrieved December 19, 2025.
  6. ↑ "Omni 2512 ES prov tables.spo" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved December 19, 2025.
  7. ↑ "Government satisfaction scores fall like winter snow as Canadians blanketed in cost-of-living challenges". Angus Reid Institute. December 17, 2025. Retrieved December 19, 2025.
  8. ↑ "NDP Support Remains High, But Ebbs Slightly As PCs Recover (Sept. 2025 Manitoba Politics)". Probe Research. September 22, 2025. Retrieved September 22, 2025.
  9. ↑ "Cross-Canada Outlook – Provincial Issues, Politics, and Performance: Manitoba". Angus Reid Institute. September 12, 2025. Retrieved September 12, 2025.
  10. ↑ "2025.09.11_Cross_canada_Press_release_tables.pdf" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. September 12, 2025. Retrieved September 12, 2025.
  11. ↑ "New PC Leader, Same Result - So Far (June 2025 Manitoba Politics)". Probe Research. June 16, 2025. Retrieved September 22, 2025.
  12. ↑ Stephenson, Laura B; Harell, Allison; Rubenson, Daniel (May 29, 2026). "2025 Canadian Election Study (CES)". Harvard Dataverse, V1. Retrieved June 12, 2026.
  13. ↑ "Provincial NDP Support Continues to Rise in Winnipeg (March 2025 Provincial Politics)". Probe Research. March 25, 2025. Retrieved March 28, 2025.
  14. ↑ "Kinew Government Ends 2024 On A High Note (Dec. 2024 Provincial Politics)". Probe Research. September 26, 2024. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
  15. ↑ "Honeymoon Continues for Manitoba's NDP (Sept. 2024 Provincial Politics)". Probe Research. September 26, 2024. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
  16. ↑ "NDP Extends Support Within Winnipeg, Across Manitoba (June 2024 Omnibus)". Probe Research. June 14, 2024. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
  17. ↑ "Omni 2406 ES prov tables.spo" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
  18. ↑ "March 2024 Manitoba Politics". Probe Research. March 26, 2024. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  19. ↑ "Omni 2403 ES prov tables.spo" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  20. ↑ "Manitoba Provincial Politics: December 2023 Probe Omnibus Survey" (PDF). Probe Research. December 1, 2023. Retrieved December 15, 2023.
  21. ↑ "Omni 2312 ES prov tables.pdf" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  22. ↑ Official Results
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