Next Balearic regional election

Next Balearic regional election
No later than 27 June 2027
All 59 seats in the Parliament of the Balearic Islands
30 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Marga Prohens Rosario Sánchez Gabriel Le Senne
Party PP PSIB–PSOE Vox
Leader since 24 July 2021 3 July 2026 15 July 2025
Leader's seat Mallorca — Mallorca
Last election 25 seats, 35.8% 18 seats, 26.5% 8 seats, 13.9%
Current seats 25 18 5
Seats needed Increase 5 Increase 12 Increase 25
 
Leader Lluís Apesteguia Josep Castells TBD
Party Més MxMe EUIB–Podemos
Leader since 24 October 2021 16 December 2018 —
Leader's seat Mallorca Menorca —
Last election 4 seats, 8.4% 2 seats, 1.4% 1 seat, 4.4%
Current seats 4 2 1
Seats needed Increase 26 Increase 28 Increase 29
Incumbent President

Marga Prohens
PP


A regional election will be held in the Balearic Islands no later than 27 June 2027 to elect the 12th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 59 seats in the Parliament will be up for election. If customary practice is maintained, the election will be held on 23 May 2027, simultaneously with regional elections in at least seven other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.

Overview

Under the 2007 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of the Balearic Islands is the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.[1] The electoral and procedural rules are supplemented by national law provisions.[2]

Date

The term of the Parliament of the Balearic Islands expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Balearic Islands (BOIB), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication.[3] The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, which means that the chamber's term will expire on 28 May 2027. The election decree must be published in the BOIB no later than 4 May 2027, setting the latest possible date for election day on 27 June 2027.

The regional president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of the Balearic Islands at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year after a previous one under this procedure.[4] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a 60-day period from the first ballot, the Parliament to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[5]

In late 2024, it emerged that regional president Marga Prohens was considering to call a snap election in the event of being unable to get her 2025 budget passed through parliament, following Vox's decision to exit the cabinet earlier that year.[6][7][8] Amid doubts on whether her party would be able to secure an absolute majority on its own, Prohens ended up ruling out an early election call.[9][10] It later transpired that Vox national leader, Santiago Abascal, had unsuccessfully attempted to force a regional snap election in April 2024.[11] New speculation emerged in September 2025 that the national leadership of the People's Party (PP) was planning to advance the elections in Aragon and Extremadura (and possibly the Balearic Islands) to make them take place near or concurrently with the Castilian-Leonese election scheduled for early 2026, in an electoral "Super Sunday".[12][13][14] While the alleged justification would be the regional governments' failure to approve their 2026 budgets, the true motive was attributed to PP plans—not without risk—to turn the simultaneous election call into a referendum on the national government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.[15][16] Prohens's government replied to such speculation by ruling out any plans for a snap election in the region, dubbing it as an "opportunistic" move.[17][18] After it transpired that Extremaduran president María Guardiola had decided to call a snap election in her region,[19] the Balearic government insisted on ruling out a snap election, commenting that "the conditions in the Balearic Islands have nothing to do with the situation in Extremadura, Aragon or Castile and León".[20]

Electoral system

Voting for the Parliament is based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Balearic Islands and with full political rights, provided that they have not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence.[21]

The Parliament of the Balearic Islands has 59 seats. All are elected in four multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the islands of Mallorca, Menorca, Ibiza and Formentera, each of which is assigned a fixed number of seats—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a five percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency.[22]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency would be entitled the following seats:[23]

Seats Constituencies
33 Mallorca
13 Menorca
12 Ibiza
1 Formentera

The law does not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term will be filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[24]

Current parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the present time.[25][26]

Current parliamentary composition
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
People's Parliamentary Group PP 25 25
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSIB–PSOE 18 18
Vox Balearics Parliamentary Group Vox 5 5
More for Mallorca Parliamentary Group Més 4 4
Mixed Parliamentary Group MxMe 2 4
EM 1
Sa Unió 1
Non-Inscrits INDEP 3[a] 3

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance are required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[30] Amendments in 2024 required a balanced composition of men and women in the electoral lists through the use of a zipper system.[31]

Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Vote % Seats
PP
List
 Marga Prohens Conservatism
Christian democracy		 35.8% 25 Yes [32]
PSIB–PSOE Rosario Sánchez Social democracy 26.5% 18 No [33]
[34]
Vox
List
 Gabriel Le Senne Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 13.9% 8 No [35]
Més Lluís Apesteguia Left-wing nationalism
Democratic socialism
Green politics		 8.4% 4 No
EUIB–
Podemos		 TBD Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism		 4.4% 1 No
MxMe
List
 Josep Castells Left-wing nationalism
Democratic socialism
Green politics		 1.4% 2 No
Sa Unió
List
 Llorenç Córdoba Conservatism 0.4% 1 No
GxF TBD Environmentalism
Democratic socialism		 0.4% 0 No

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 30 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of the Balearic Islands.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSIB–PSOE Vox Més
Podemos		 El Pi MxMe CS Sa Unió GxF Sumar SALF Lead
IBES/Última Hora[p 1] 1–5 Jun 2026 1,300 ? 39.1
28		 22.8
14		 17.8
9		 9.0
4		 3.2
0		 2.6
0		 1.7
3		 0.5
0		 0.5
1		 0.3
0		 – – 16.3
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 2][p 3] 20–28 May 2026 936 ? 35.1
26/28		 21.0
12/14		 17.5
8/10		 8.5
4		 5.7
2		 – 1.6
2/3		 – 0.4
0/1		 0.4
0/1		 – – 14.1
NC Report/PP[p 4] 14–21 May 2026 1,700 52.4 38.5
28		 23.9
16		 15.0
8		 9.9
4		 3.8
0		 3.7
0		 1.5
2		 – 0.4
1		 0.4
0		 – – 14.6
NC Report/La Razón[p 5] 16–31 May 2025 350 ? ?
29		 ?
14		 ?
8		 ?
4		 ?
1		 – ?
2		 – ?
1		 – – – ?
IBES/Última Hora[p 6] 19–23 May 2025 1,300 ? 38.6
28		 25.4
17		 14.5
7		 9.3
4		 4.0
0		 2.2
0		 1.5
2		 0.4
0		 0.4
0		 0.4
1		 – – 13.2
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 7] 28 Apr–12 May 2025 1,107 ? 36.4
26/27		 25.7
16/17		 13.8
7/8		 9.8
4		 5.5
1/2		 3.0
0		 1.6
2		 – 0.4
0/1		 0.4
0/1		 – – 10.7
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 N/a 37.7 35.8
(26)		 28.9
(21)		 11.2
(6)		 5.2
(3)		 3.1
(0)		 1.0
(0)		 [c] 0.6
(0)		 – – 4.4
(0)		 5.3
(3)		 6.9
IBES/Última Hora[p 8] 13–17 May 2024 1,300 ? 38.8
28		 23.9
16		 13.1
6		 10.9
5		 4.7
0		 1.8
0		 2.0
3		 0.3
0		 0.3
0		 0.4
1		 – – 14.9
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 N/a 61.3 35.6
(23)		 30.2
(18)		 15.2
(7)		 [d] [d] – [d] – – – 16.6
(11)		 – 5.4
2023 regional election 28 May 2023 N/a 55.1 35.8
25		 26.5
18		 13.9
8		 8.4
4		 4.4
1		 3.8
0		 1.4
2		 1.4
0		 0.4
1		 0.4
0		 – – 9.3

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Balearic Islands.

Notes

  1. ↑ Francisco José Cardona, Agustín Buades and Idoia Ribas, former Vox legislators.[27][28][29]
  2. 1 2 In Formentera.
  3. 1 2 Within Més.
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Within Sumar.
  5. 1 2 3 Does not include non-resident citizens.
  6. ↑ Responses denoting a party's generic candidate are aggregated to that party's main candidate/leader at the time of the poll.

References

Opinion poll sources

  1. ↑ "Prohens acaricia la mayoría absoluta a falta de un diputado". Última Hora (in Spanish). 14 June 2026.
  2. ↑ "El PP de Prohens rozaría la mayoría absoluta en Baleares mientras el PSOE de Armengol se desploma a mínimos históricos". El Mundo. 1 June 2026.
  3. ↑ "Sondeo El Mundo – A un año de las autonómicas – Estimación de voto Islas Baleares". Sigma Dos. 5 June 2026.
  4. ↑ "Elecciones 2027 en Baleares: Prohens recorta distancias con la mayoría absoluta, pero sigue dependiendo de Vox". Diario de Ibiza (in Spanish). 31 May 2026.
  5. ↑ "Macroencuesta electoral de NC Report (IV): El PP roza la mayoría absoluta en Baleares mientras el PSOE se desploma". La Razón (in Spanish). 5 June 2025.
  6. ↑ "Prohens agranda su mayoría pero vuelve a depender de Vox". Última Hora (in Spanish). 1 June 2025.
  7. ↑ "Prohens se acerca a la mayoría absoluta en Baleares mientras sigue la caída del PSOE de Armengol". El Mundo (in Spanish). 19 May 2025.
  8. ↑ "El PP crece a costa de Vox y la izquierda sigue sin sumar". Última Hora (in Spanish). 26 May 2024.
  9. 1 2 "Tendencias y demandas municipales y autonómicas. Comunidad Autónoma de les Illes Balears (Estudio nº 3503. Marzo 2025)". CIS (in Spanish). 1 July 2025.
  10. ↑ "La presidenta es la preferida para volver a gobernar y dobla a Armengol". Última Hora (in Spanish). 14 June 2026.

Other

  1. ↑ Statute (2007), arts. 40 & 47–50.
  2. ↑ LEIB (1986), final prov. 1.
  3. ↑ Statute (2007), arts. 41 & 52; LEIB (1986), art. 11 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), art. 42).
  4. ↑ Statute (2007), arts. 52 & 55; LGIB (2019), arts. 9–10.
  5. ↑ Statute (2007), art. 54.
  6. ↑ Ramos, Ana Belén (10 December 2024). "El PP de Baleares abre la veda y contempla un adelanto electoral tras la ruptura con Vox". El Confidencial (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 October 2025.
  7. ↑ Lamet, Juanma (10 December 2024). "El PP ya abre la puerta de elecciones en primavera en Castilla y León y Baleares". El Mundo (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 4 October 2025.
  8. ↑ Ramos, Ana Belén (11 December 2024). "Génova da "autonomía absoluta" a Prohens para decidir si activa elecciones en Baleares". El Confidencial (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 October 2025.
  9. ↑ Hernández, Marisol; Rocha, Carlos (29 December 2024). "El PSOE no ve adelanto electoral en Baleares: "Sería hacerse un Mañueco"". El Confidencial (in Spanish). Retrieved 23 October 2025.
  10. ↑ Ruiz Coll, Miguel Ángel (30 December 2024). "Prohens aleja el riesgo de adelantar elecciones: Vox "se romperá" si Abascal impone votar 'no' a los Presupuestos". El Español (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 October 2025.
  11. ↑ Porcel, Guillem (18 September 2025). "Idoia Ribas desvela que Abascal maniobró para que Prohens convocara elecciones anticipadas en 2024". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). Palma. Retrieved 4 October 2025.
  12. ↑ Esteban, Paloma (29 September 2025). "Varias comunidades del PP sopesan adelantar elecciones en 2026". ABC (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 4 October 2025.
  13. ↑ D. Prieto, Alberto (2 October 2025). "El PP planea un 'superdomingo' electoral en Baleares, Andalucía, Extremadura y Aragón adelante Sánchez las generales o no". El Español (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 October 2025.
  14. ↑ Gutiérrez, Lucía (3 October 2025). "El PP no descarta ningún escenario: del «superdomingo» a las elecciones en cascada". Demócrata (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 October 2025.
  15. ↑ Lamet, Juanma (1 October 2025). "El PP ve posible un adelanto electoral en Extremadura y Aragón y contempla ya un 'superdomingo' autonómico en marzo". El Mundo (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 4 October 2025.
  16. ↑ Carmona, José (2 October 2025). "El 'superdomingo electoral' autonómico: un plebiscito sobre Sánchez con riesgos para el PP". Público (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 4 October 2025.
  17. ↑ Ballesteros, Esther (3 October 2025). "El PP descarta adelantar elecciones en Balears y se blinda en el poder pese a las fricciones con Vox: "No tiraremos la toalla"". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Mallorca. Retrieved 4 October 2025.
  18. ↑ Porcel, Guillem (3 October 2025). "El Govern descarta por ahora un adelanto electoral junto a otras comunidades del PP". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). Palma. Retrieved 4 October 2025.
  19. ↑ "Guardiola amenaza con adelantar elecciones en Extremadura si PSOE y Vox bloquean definitivamente sus Presupuestos". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Madrid / Mérida. Servimedia. 23 October 2025. Retrieved 23 October 2025.
  20. ↑ "El Govern descarta adelantar elecciones independientemente de lo que pase en Extremadura: "No tiene nada que ver"" (in Spanish). Palma: Europa Press. 24 October 2025. Retrieved 25 October 2025.
  21. ↑ Statute (2007), arts. 41 & 43; LEIB (1986), art. 2 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), arts. 2–3).
  22. ↑ Statute (2007), art. 41; LEIB (1986), art. 12.
  23. ↑ LEIB (1986), art. 12.
  24. ↑ LEIB (1986), art. 13 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), arts. 46 & 48).
  25. ↑ Lozano, Carles. "Eleccions al Parlament de les Illes Balears i Consells Insulars (desde 1979)". Historia Electoral.com (in Catalan). Retrieved 31 October 2025.
  26. ↑ "L'hemicicle parlamentari" (PDF) (in Catalan). Parliament of the Balearic Islands. Retrieved 26 May 2024.
  27. ↑ Perpinyà, Joan Miquel (26 October 2023). "Primera baja en Vox: el diputado Cardona abandona el grupo parlamentario". Mallorca Diario (in Spanish). Retrieved 26 May 2024.
  28. ↑ Bohórquez, Lucía (30 August 2024). "Nueva fuga en Vox en Baleares: un diputado abandona el grupo por la ruptura del pacto con el PP". El País (in Spanish). Palma. Retrieved 24 December 2024.
  29. ↑ "Idoia Ribas confirma su salto de Vox al grupo de no adscritos: "Es un proyecto dirigido al fracaso"". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). 10 July 2025. Retrieved 10 July 2025.
  30. ↑ LEIB (1986), art. 16 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), art. 44).
  31. ↑ LOREG (1985), art. 44 bis.
  32. ↑ "Prohens renueva su liderazgo al frente del PP balear y activa el rumbo hacia el próximo ciclo electoral". El Periódico (in Spanish). Palma. 23 May 2026. Retrieved 31 May 2026.
  33. ↑ "Armengol renuncia a ser la candidata del PSOE balear en las autonómicas de 2027". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 20 June 2026. Retrieved 20 June 2026.
  34. ↑ "El PSIB proclama a Rosario Sánchez candidata a la presidencia del Govern" (in Spanish). Palma: Europa Press. 3 July 2026. Retrieved 16 July 2026.
  35. ↑ Bohórquez, Lucía (15 July 2025). "Vox alza al procesado Gabriel Le Senne como presidente del partido en Baleares". El País (in Spanish). Palma. Retrieved 1 June 2026.

Bibliography

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