Next Andalusian regional election

Next Andalusian regional election
No later than 16 June 2030
All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia
55 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Juanma Moreno María Jesús Montero Manuel Gavira
Party PP PSOE–A Vox
Leader since 1 March 2014 23 February 2025 10 August 2022
Leader's seat Málaga Seville Cádiz
Last election 53 seats, 41.6% 28 seats, 22.8% 15 seats, 13.5%
Current seats 53 28 15
Seats needed Increase 2 Increase 27 Increase 40
 
Leader José Ignacio García Antonio Maíllo
Party Adelante Andalucía PorA
Leader since 16 March 2024 20 November 2025
Leader's seat Cádiz Seville
Last election 8 seats, 9.6% 5 seats, 6.3%
Current seats 8 5
Seats needed Increase 47 Increase 50
Incumbent President

Juanma Moreno
PP


A regional election will be held in Andalusia no later than 16 June 2030 to elect the 14th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 109 seats in the Parliament will be up for election. With the 2026 election having resulted in a hung parliament and with regional president Juanma Moreno reportedly unwilling to let far-right Vox into his government, Spanish media have speculated on the increasing likelihood of a repeat election taking place.[1][2][3][4][5] During his investiture speech on 29 June, Moreno threatened with a repeat election on 25 October 2026[6][7][8] as Vox announced its opposition to cave in to his demands.[9][10][11] Moreno's failure in the first ballot of investiture saw him backtracking and accepting to let Vox into government as well as adopt a number of the party's proposals.[12]

Overview

Under the 2007 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of Andalusia is the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.[13] The electoral and procedural rules are supplemented by national law provisions.[14]

Date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication (barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August).[15] The previous election was held on 17 May 2026, which means that the chamber's term will expire on 17 May 2030. The election decree shall be published in the BOJA no later than 23 April 2030, setting the latest possible date for election day on 16 June 2030.

The regional president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year after a previous one.[16] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[17]

The 2026 election led to the ruling People's Party (PP) under Juanma Moreno losing the absolute majority it had held during the four previous years, meaning it needed the support of the far-right Vox party to retain power.[18][19] Moreno's resistance to rely on Vox's support—in exchange of programmatic concessions he was vocally unwilling to accept—led to media outlets to comment on the possibility of a repeat election being required later in the year.[1][2][3][4][5] With the first investiture ballot taking place on 30 June 2026, a repeat election was automatically set for 25 October in the event that no regional president is elected before 30 August.[6][7][20]

Electoral system

Voting for the Parliament is based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and with full political rights, provided that they have not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence.[21]

The Parliament of Andalusia has a minimum of 109 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at that number. All are elected in eight multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, each of which is assigned an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 distributed in proportion to population (with the number of seats in each province not exceeding two times that of any other)—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency.[22] The use of this electoral method may result in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution.[23]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency would be entitled the following seats (as of 11 December 2025):[a]

Seats Constituencies
18 Seville
17 Málaga
15 Cádiz
13 Granada
12 Almería, Córdoba
11 Huelva, Jaén

The law does not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term will be filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[25]

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance are required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[26] Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women is required in the electoral lists through the use of a zipper system.[27]

Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Vote % Seats
PP
List
 Juanma Moreno Conservatism
Christian democracy		 41.6% 53 Yes
PSOE–A María Jesús Montero Social democracy 22.8% 28 No [28]
Vox
List
 Manuel Gavira Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 13.8% 15 Yes
Adelante
Andalucía
List
 José Ignacio García Andalusian nationalism
Left-wing populism
Anti-capitalism		 9.6% 8 No
PorA
List
 Antonio Maíllo Left-wing populism
Green politics		 6.3% 5 No

Notes

  1. ↑ This seat allocation has been manually calculated by applying the electoral rules set out in the law, on the basis of the latest official population figures provided by the Spanish government as of 2026. As such, it should be deemed as a provisional, non-binding estimation. The definitive allocation will be determined by the election decree at the time of the parliament's dissolution.[24]

References

  1. 1 2 "La normativa andaluza acota los plazos para una investidura que si fracasa en dos meses aboca a nuevas elecciones" (in Spanish). Seville: Europa Press. 18 May 2026. Retrieved 18 May 2026.
  2. 1 2 Martí, Fernando (18 May 2026). "Estas son las fechas claves tras las elecciones en Andalucía: ojo a la repetición electoral". La Razón (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 May 2026.
  3. 1 2 Roso, María (18 May 2026). "El reloj de Andalucía ya corre: las fechas que deciden si hay nuevo Gobierno o repetición electoral". Córdoba (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 May 2026.
  4. 1 2 López Pavón, Teresa (6 June 2026). "La falta de avances en la negociación entre el PP y Vox dispara las alertas en el PSOE ante el miedo a una repetición electoral en Andalucía". El Mundo (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 13 June 2026.
  5. 1 2 Grimaldi, Alberto (9 June 2026). "¿Tentados con repetir elecciones?" (in Spanish). Seville: Cadena SER. Retrieved 13 June 2026.
  6. 1 2 "Andalucía activará este martes la cuenta atrás para repetir elecciones en octubre si Moreno no es investido en dos meses" (in Spanish). Seville: Europa Press. 27 June 2026. Retrieved 30 June 2026.
  7. 1 2 Rodríguez, Enrique (30 June 2026). "Juanma Moreno 'amenaza' con el calendario: repetición electoral el 25 de octubre y 'desgobierno' hasta Navidad" (in Spanish). 101TV. Retrieved 30 June 2026.
  8. ↑ "Moreno carga contra el bloqueo de la izquierda y alerta de medio año sin gobierno si hay repetición electoral". Demócrata (in Spanish). Agencias. 30 June 2026. Retrieved 30 June 2026.
  9. ↑ Flores, Victoria (29 June 2026). "Juanma Moreno pide responsabilidad para no repetir elecciones en Andalucía y evita cualquier alusión a la inmigración en su investidura". El Correo de Andalucía (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 29 June 2026.
  10. ↑ Cela, Daniel (29 June 2026). "Vox revienta la investidura de Moreno y adelanta su voto en contra a mitad de un discurso que omitió la prioridad nacional". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 29 June 2026.
  11. ↑ Benítez, Mercedes (29 June 2026). "La cuenta atrás para una hipotética repetición electoral en Andalucía comienza el martes". ABC (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 June 2026.
  12. ↑ López Pavón, Teresa; Rodríguez, Chema (2 July 2026). "El pacto andaluz: Vox tendrá una vicepresidencia en el gobierno de Juanma Moreno, que ocupará Manuel Gavira". El Mundo (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 2 July 2026.
  13. ↑ Statute (2007), arts. 100, 106 & 108–111.
  14. ↑ LEAn (1986), final prov. 1.
  15. ↑ Statute (2007), art. 101; LEAn (1986), arts. 14–15 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), art. 42).
  16. ↑ Statute (2007), art. 127; LGAn (2006), arts. 9 & 41–42.
  17. ↑ Statute (2007), art. 118.
  18. ↑ Munárriz, Ángel (17 May 2026). "Moreno pierde la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía y dependerá de Vox para gobernar". El País (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 18 May 2026.
  19. ↑ Cruz Martín, Mª Carmen (17 May 2026). "El PP pierde la mayoría absoluta con un Vox decisivo, el PSOE sigue en su caída y Adelante casi dobla a Por Andalucía" (in Spanish). RTVE. Retrieved 18 May 2026.
  20. ↑ Aguilar, Rafael (1 July 2026). "Andalucía, ante el riesgo de su primera repetición electoral si no hay acuerdo PP-Vox este jueves". ABC. Seville. Retrieved 1 July 2026.
  21. ↑ Statute (2007), arts. 101 & 104; LEAn (1986), art. 2 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), arts. 2–3).
  22. ↑ Statute (2007), arts. 101 & 104; LEAn (1986), arts. 16–18.
  23. ↑ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Dublin: Trinity College Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  24. ↑ Real Decreto 1117/2025, de 3 de diciembre, por el que se declaran oficiales las cifras de población resultantes de la revisión del Padrón municipal referidas al 1 de enero de 2025 (Royal Decree 1117/2025). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 3 December 2025. Retrieved 22 December 2025.
  25. ↑ LEAn (1986), art. 19 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), arts. 46 & 48).
  26. ↑ LEAn (1986), arts. 22–23 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), art. 44).
  27. ↑ LEAn (1986), art. 23.
  28. ↑ Barba, Eduardo (18 May 2026). "María Jesús Montero asumirá su escaño para liderar la oposición pero no asegura si por cuatro años: «Voy minuto a minuto»". ABC (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 21 May 2026.

Bibliography

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