2030 South Australian state election
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16 March 2030
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All 47 seats in the House of Assembly 24 seats needed for a majority 11 of 22 seats in the Legislative Council | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Registered | 1,322,042[1] As of 30 April 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Current map of House of Assembly electorates as elected in 2026. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A state election will be held on 16 March 2030 to elect the members of the 57th Parliament of South Australia. All 47 seats in the House of Assembly (lower house) will be up for election, along with 11 of the 22 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house).
The incumbent Labor government, led by Premier Peter Malinauskas, is expected to seek a third four-year term in government. It is expected that they will be challenged by the Liberal Party, led by Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn, and One Nation, led by Cory Bernardi. It is expected that the Greens and other minor parties and independents will contest the election.
South Australia has compulsory voting, with full-preference instant-runoff voting for single-member electorates in the lower house, and optional preference single transferable voting in the proportionally represented upper house. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of South Australia (ECSA), an independent body answerable to Parliament, and will be held on the same day as the South Australian First Nations Voice election.
Background
Previous election
At the previous election in March 2026, the Labor Party, led by Peter Malinauskas, was returned to government for a second four-year term, winning 34 seats in the House of Assembly, enough for a ten-seat majority. The Liberal Party, won only 5 seats and formed the official opposition. The crossbench consisted of four members of One Nation, and four independents: Geoff Brock, Matt Schultz, Travis Fatchen, and Lou Nicholson.
In the Legislative Council, Labor gained a tenth seat, remaining the largest party in the upper house. Following the election, Labor MLC Reggie Martin was elected to the chamber's presidency, meaning that Labor required two additional votes to pass legislation. The Liberals were reduced to six seats, and the Greens remained steady at two. One Nation won three seats, and Connie Bonaros, the last remaining SA Best MP, was defeated.
Composition of Parliament
In May 2026, at the first sitting of the newly-elected Parliament, Labor MP Nat Cook was elected as Speaker of the House of Assembly and temporarily left the Labor Party, as is required for the role of Speaker.[2] In June 2026, Sarah Game defected from her own party to join Family First, on the same night that her Bill proposing new limits on late term abortions was being debated in Parliament.[3]
Pre-election standings
Parties are listed according to their primary vote share at the previous state election.
| Affiliation | House of Assembly | Legislative Council | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 election | Current | Change | 2026 election | Current | Change | ||
| Labor | 34 | 33 |  1[a] |
10 | 10 |  | |
| One Nation | 4 | 4 | |
3 | 3 | | |
| Liberal | 5 | 5 | |
6 | 6 | | |
| Greens | 0 | 0 | |
2 | 2 | | |
| Independent | 4 | 5 |  1[a] |
0 | 0 | | |
| Family First | 0 | 0 | |
0 | 1 | 1[b] | |
| Fair Go | 0 | 0 | |
1 | 0 | 1[b] | |
| Total seats | 47 | 22 | |||||
House of Assembly pendulum
Legislative Council
| Current members of the South Australian Legislative Council | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor (10) | Liberal (6) | One Nation (3) | Greens (2) | Family First (1) |
|
elected 2026: |
elected 2026: |
elected 2026: |
elected 2026: |
|
| elected 2022: | elected 2022: | elected 2022: | elected 2022: | |
Electoral system
Members of the House of Assembly are elected by instant-runoff voting using full preferential voting. Each electoral district elects a single member.
Members of the Legislative Council are elected by proportional representation using a single transferable vote. Members serve staggered eight-year terms with half of the Council elected at each state election.
Upcoming redistribution
As required under the South Australian Constitution, the South Australian Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission must re-draw the boundaries of the House of Assembly electoral districts after each election.
Election date
The last state election was held on 21 March 2026 to elect members for the House of Assembly and half of the members in the Legislative Council. In South Australia, section 28 of the Constitution Act 1934, as amended in 2001, directs that parliaments have fixed four-year terms, and elections must be held on the third Saturday in March every four years unless this date falls the day after Good Friday, occurs within the same month as a federal election, or the conduct of the election could be adversely affected by a state disaster. Section 28 also states that the Governor may also dissolve the Assembly and call an election for an earlier date if the government has lost the confidence of the Assembly or a bill of special importance has been rejected by the Legislative Council. Section 41 states that both the Council and the Assembly may also be dissolved simultaneously if a deadlock occurs between them.[4]
The Electoral (Miscellaneous) Amendment Act 2013 introduced set dates for writs for general elections in South Australia.[5] The writ sets the dates for the close of the electoral roll and the close of nominations for an election. The Electoral Act 1985 requires that, for a general election, the writ be issued 28 days before the date fixed for polling (S47(2a)) and the electoral roll be closed at 12 noon, six days after the issue of the writ (S48(3(a)(i))). The close of nominations will be at 12 noon three days after the close of rolls (Electoral Act 1985 S48(4)(a) and S4(1)).[6][7][8]
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 16 February 2030 | Issue of writs |
| 18 February 2030 | Candidate nominations open |
| 22 February 2030 | Electoral rolls close Party candidate nominations close |
| 25 February 2030 | Independent candidate nominations close Declaration of nominations |
| 9 March 2030 | Early voting opens |
| 16 March 2030 | Polling day |
Registered parties
There are 18 political parties registered with the Electoral Commission of South Australia.[9]
- Animal Justice Party
- Australian Citizens Party
- Australian Family Party
- Australian Labor Party
- Fair Go for Australians
- Family First Party
- For Unley
- Jing Lee Better Community
- Legalise Cannabis
- Liberal Party
- Libertarian Party
- National Party
- One Nation
- Real Change SA
- SA Best
- SA Socialists
- South Australian Greens
- United Voice Australia Party
Opinion polling
Voting intention
House of Assembly
| Date | Polling firm | Client | Sample size |
Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | ONP | LIB | GRN | OTH | ALP | ONP | |||||
| 8–13 Jul 2026 | RedBridge/Accent[10] | M Resources | 862 | 41% | 23% | 18% | 11% | 7% | 62.5% | 37.5% | |
| 29 May – 15 Jun 2026 | DemosAU/Premier National[11][12] | Ace Strategies | 931 | 35% | 26% | 18% | 13% | 8% | 56% | 44% | |
| 21 Mar 2026 | 2026 election result | 37.5% | 22.9% | 18.9% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 55.7%[c] | — | |||
Leadership approval
| Date | Polling firm | Client | Preferred Premier | Malinauskas | Hurn | Bernardi | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malinauskas | Hurn | Und. | Net | Sat. | Dis. | Und. | Net | Sat. | Dis. | Und. | Net | Sat. | Dis. | Und. | Net | |||
| 29 May – 15 Jun 2026 | DemosAU/Premier National[11][12] | Ace Strategies | 51% | 20% | 29% | 31% | 43% | 21% | 36% | +22% | 21% | 24% | 55% | –3% | 20% | 41% | 39% | –21% |
Notes
- 1 2 3 * In May 2026, Labor MHA Nat Cook was elected Speaker and duly moved to sit as an independent for the parliamentary term.
- 1 2 * In June 2026, Fair Go MLC Sarah Game changed affiliation to the Family First Party.
- ↑ The Electoral Commission of South Australia abandoned an attempt to calculate a two-party-preferred result as 25 two-candidate-preferred contests were Labor–One Nation and 13 were Labor–Liberal. Instead, Antony Green provided a two-party-preferred count between the Labor Party, and the largest non-Labor candidate in each seat.[13] This was estimated at 55.7–44.3 in favour of the Labor Party, a 1.1 pp swing towards them since the 2022 election. He noted that given how poorly the Liberals polled, Labor likely would've polled above 58% in a traditional two-party contest.[13] Kevin Bonham estimated both a Labor–Liberal and a Labor–One Nation two-party-preferred vote. In a classic two-party contest, he had Labor winning 57.9–42.1, a swing of 3.3 pp. An estimated "shadow 2PP" had an even larger margin of victory for the Labor Party at 58.2–41.8 over One Nation.[14] In their first opinion poll following the state election, DemosAU calculated a two-party-preferred vote between Labor and One Nation of 58.1–41.9.[15]
References
- ↑ "Enrolment statistics". Electoral Commission of South Australia.
- ↑ Karakulak, Helen (5 May 2026). "Labor veteran wins SA's top speaker job following portfolio loss". InDaily. Archived from the original on 5 May 2026.
- ↑ Carbone, Isabella; Hunter, Will (17 June 2026). "Sarah Game leaves her own party to join conservative Family First party". ABC News. Archived from the original on 17 June 2026.
- ↑ Lundie, Rob (30 May 2012). "Australian elections timetable". Background Note. Department of Parliamentary Services. p. 7. Archived from the original on 11 June 2024. Retrieved 5 February 2013 – via Parliamentary Library.
- ↑ Electoral (Miscellaneous) Amendment Act 2013 (SA)
- ↑ Electoral Act 1985 (SA) s 47 Issue of writ
- ↑ Electoral Act 1985 (SA) s 48 Contents of writ
- ↑ Electoral Act 1985 (SA) s 4 Interpretation
- ↑ "Register of political parties". Electoral Commission of South Australia. Archived from the original on 4 March 2026.
- ↑ "Libs' 'vote losing machine' cops blame for Mali's big poll shock". The Advertiser. 27 July 2026.
- 1 2 "South Australian Poll" (PDF). DemosAU. 26 June 2026. Archived (PDF) from the original on 27 June 2026.
- 1 2 Simmons, David (25 June 2026). "Orange surge spoils Mali's post-election 'honeymoon'". InDaily. Archived from the original on 25 June 2026.
- 1 2 Green, Antony (9 April 2026). "House of Assembly Election – Draft Analysis" (PDF).
- ↑ Bonham, Kevin (10 April 2026). "The Amazing 2026 South Australian Election: Final Lower House Results and Poll Performance". Archived from the original on 17 April 2026.
- ↑ "South Australian Poll" (PDF). DemosAU. 26 June 2026. Archived (PDF) from the original on 27 June 2026.