2027 Guatemalan general election

2027 Guatemalan general election
June and August 2027 (presumptive)
Incumbent President

Bernardo Arévalo
Independent[a]


Legislative election
All 160 seats in Congress
81 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
Vamos Allan Rodríguez 39
UNE José Inés Castillo 28
Semilla Carlos Sanabria 23
Cabal Luis Aguirre 18
VIVA Edín de Jesús 11
Valor Elmer Palencia 10
Todos Felipe Alejos 6
VOS Orlando Blanco 4
BIEN Fidel Reyes Lee 4
PPN Nadia de León Torres 3
Victoria Juan Carlos Rivera 3
CREO Cristian Álvarez 3
Blue Jorge Villagrán 2
Elephant Rodrigo Pellecer 2
Unionist Álvaro Arzú Escobar 2
Winaq Sonia Gutiérrez 1
Change Esduin Javier Javier 1
Incumbent President of the Congress
Luis Contreras
CREO

General elections will be held in Guatemala in June 2027 to elect the president and vice president, all 160 seats in Congress, all 20 Guatemalan members of the Central American Parliament, and mayors and councils for all the country's 340 municipalities, with a second round of the presidential elections to be held in August if no candidate wins a majority in the first round. Incumbent President Bernardo Arévalo is constitutionally prohibited from running for a second four-year term.[3][4]

It is expected that the ruling party's legislative coalition will seek to reform the Electoral Law.[5]

Electoral system

President

The President of Guatemala is elected using the two-round system.[6]

Congress

The 160 members of Congress are elected by two methods; 130 are elected from 22 multi-member constituencies based on the departments, with the remaining 31 elected from a single nationwide constituency. Seats are elected using closed list proportional representation, with seats allocated using the D'Hondt method.[6]

District Seats
Alta Verapaz 9
Baja Verapaz 2
Chimaltenango 5
Chiquimula 3
El Progreso 2
Escuintla 6
Guatemala 19
Guatemala City 11
Huehuetenango 10
Izabal 3
Jalapa 3
Jutiapa 4
National List 32
Petén 4
Quetzaltenango 7
Quiché 8
Retalhuleu 3
Sacatepéquez 3
San Marcos 9
Santa Rosa 3
Sololá 3
Suchitepéquez 5
Totonicapán 4
Zacapa 2
Total 160

Presidential candidates

Expressed interest

Potential candidates

Declined candidatures

Congress

Party Current legislative leader 2023 result
Image Name Votes (%) Seats
Vamos Allan Rodríguez 15.06%
39 / 160
National Unity of Hope José Inés Castillo 12.90%
28 / 160
Movimiento Semilla José Carlos Sanabria 11.72%
23 / 160
Cabal Luis Aguirre 8.90%
18 / 160
Vision with Values Edín de Jesús 6.92%
11 / 160
Valor Elmer Palencia 5.51%
10 / 160
Unionist Party Álvaro Arzú Escobar
2 / 160
Todos Felipe Alejos 4.05%
6 / 160
Will, Opportunity and Solidarity Orlando Blanco 4.47%
4 / 160
Bienestar Nacional Fidel Reyes Lee 2.70%
4 / 160
Nosotros Nadia de León Torres 3.15%
3 / 160
Victory Juan Carlos Rivera 3.00%
3 / 160
Commitment, Renewal and Order Cristian Álvarez 2.03%
3 / 160
Blue Party Jorge Mario Villagrán 2.36%
2 / 160
Elephant Community Rodrigo Pellecer 2.29%
2 / 160
Winaq Sonia Gutiérrez 3.21%
1 / 160
Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unity TBA
Change Esduin Javier 1.26%
1 / 160

Opinion polls

Opinion polls before candidate registration

  • Political parties that are crossed out are not active or have been cancelled; and political parties in italics refer to those that are in formation.
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Roberto
Arzú		 Neto
Bran		 Armando
Castillo		 Anabella
Giracca		 Edmond
Mulet		 Hugo
Peña		 Carlos
Pineda		 Nery
Ramos		 Zury
Ríos		 Sandra
Torres		 Others No one
Cabal CREO VIVA Roots XGuate CE Serve Firmes Unionist UNE
Estudio Electoral[25] 27 July–1 August 2026 3,000 15.8% 5.9% 3.4% 4.0% 2.0% 2.7% 7.0% 5.1% 3.2% 11.6% 3.5%[b] 31.3%
Datos Duros[26] 18–23 July 2026 780 18.0% 7.5% N/a N/a N/a N/a 9.0% 2.5% 2.0% 14.0% 7.0% 40.0%
Estudio Electoral[27] 27 June–2 July 2026 3,000 14.3% 9.3% 3.0% 2.1% 1.0% 1.2% 7.4% 1.6% 5.3% 12.0% 3.9%[c] 38.9%
Estudio Electoral[28] 26–30 May 2026 3,000 16.7% 4.7% 2.1% 0.3% 1.8% 2.1% 11.4% 3.3% 6.1% 15.5% 1.8%[d] 34.2%
CID-Gallup[29] c. May 2026 1,200 13.0% N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 23.0% N/a N/a 27.0% 7.0%[e] 30.0%

Notes

  1. ↑ Arévalo was elected by Movimiento Semilla, but the party was dissolved de facto in 2023[1] and de jure in 2026.[2]
  2. ↑ 2.1%: Sergio Madrazo (Todos)
    1.4%: Fausto Arimany (Valor)
  3. ↑ 2.1%: Fausto Arimany (Valor)
    1.3%: Sandra Jovel (Force)
    0.3%: Óscar Castañeda (PODER)
    0.1%: Óscar Cruz (Jaguar)
    0.1%: Manuel Conde Orellana (Vamos)
  4. ↑ 1.0%: Manuel Conde Orellana (Vamos)
    0.8%: Óscar Castañeda (PODER)
  5. ↑ 7.0%: Thelma Aldana (Ind.)

References

  1. ↑ "Registro de Ciudadanos suspende provisionalmente la inscripción de la personalidad jurídica del partido Movimiento Semilla" (in Spanish). 28 August 2023.
  2. ↑ "Movimiento Semilla queda cancelado y facción oficialista respalda como alternativa al comité Raíces" (in Spanish). 27 March 2026.
  3. ↑ Oliva, William (7 March 2018). "Jimmy Morales dice que le gustaría gobernar otro período" [Jimmy Morales says he would like to govern another term]. Prensa Libre (Guatemala) (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 5 April 2023. Retrieved 23 June 2023.
  4. ↑ González, Marcos (23 June 2023). "Por qué en Guatemala ningún partido ha repetido en la presidencia en sus casi 40 años de democracia" [Why in Guatemala no party has repeated the presidency in its almost 40 years of democracy]. BBC News (in Spanish).
  5. ↑ Cuevas, Douglas (17 January 2024). "Semilla habría pactado 10 reformas legales para llegar a la presidencia del Congreso" [Semilla would have agreed on 10 legal reforms to become president of Congress]. Prensa Libre (in Spanish).
  6. 1 2 Congress of the Republic Archived 18 April 2019 at the Wayback Machine IFES
  7. ↑ "Precandidato Presidencial de VALOR Fausto Arimany hace su debut en Escuintla". El Metropolitano (in Spanish). 12 April 2026.
  8. 1 2 3 4 González, Ana (21 April 2025). "La presidencia en la mira: los políticos que ya piensan en las elecciones de 2027" [The presidency in the spotlight: politicians already thinking about the 2027 elections]. República GT (in Spanish).
  9. ↑ "Napoleón Barrientos es el precandidato Presidencial del Partido NOSOTROS". El Metropolitano (in Spanish). 4 June 2026.
  10. ↑ "Alcalde Neto Bran confirma que se postulará para buscar la Presidencia de Guatemala". Emisoras Unidas (in Spanish). 6 June 2026.
  11. ↑ "Líderes de Petén se aglutinan en el partido Cambió, de cara al próximo proceso electoral". El Metropolitano (in Spanish). 23 March 2026.
  12. ↑ "Sergio Madrazo es el precandidato Presidencial del Partido TODOS". El Metropolitano (in Spanish). 31 March 2026.
  13. ↑ "Comunidad Elefante confirma a excandidato presidencial Hugo Peña como secretario general". La Hora (in Spanish). 22 February 2026.
  14. ↑ Gramajo, Jessica (14 June 2023). "El futuro de Carlos Pineda tras quedar fuera de las Elecciones Generales 2023" [The future of Carlos Pineda after being left out of the 2023 General Elections]. Soy502 (in Spanish).
  15. 1 2 "De Azul a Revolución, que ahora será Firmes: Nery Ramos asegura partido y se ratifica con Portillo y Morataya". La Hora (in Spanish). 15 August 2026.
  16. ↑ "Partido Azul realiza su asamblea nacional y presenta a nuevos integrantes". Prensa Libre (in Spanish). 22 March 2026.
  17. ↑ "🔵 A pesar de la tercera derrota, Sandra Torres no tiraría la toalla política" [🔵 Despite the third defeat, Sandra Torres would not throw in the political towel]. República (in Spanish). 21 August 2023.
  18. 1 2 "El oficialismo en Guatemala y su futuro, ¿figuras con rumbo a 2027?". Diario Ya CR (in Spanish). 4 February 2026.
  19. ↑ "Movimiento Semilla se divide, Samuel Pérez y Abelardo Pinto se disputan las bases del partido" [Semilla Movement is divided; Samuel Pérez and Abelardo Pinto are fighting over the party's membership]. Prensa Libre (in Spanish). 19 May 2025.
  20. ↑ ""Seré candidato a la presidencia", dice Carlos el Pescadito Ruiz al criticar a políticos por su "gran apoyo" a la Selección" ["I will be a presidential candidate," says Carlos el Pescadito Ruiz, criticizing politicians for their "great support" for the national team.]. Prensa Libre (in Spanish). 2 July 2025.
  21. ↑ "Toc: tras dejar Los 48 Cantones, publica que en 2027 buscará la Presidencia" [Toc: after leaving Los 48 Cantones, he publishes that in 2027 he will seek the Presidency]. La Hora (in Spanish). 17 January 2023.
  22. ↑ "General Cano precandidato presidenciable de Victoria exige a su bancada aprobar la Iniciativa 6591". El Metropolitano (in Spanish). 28 May 2026.
  23. ↑ "Alcalde Hugo Sarceño es designado Director de Capacitación del Partido BIEN". El Metropolitano (in Spanish). 2 March 2026.
  24. ↑ "Precandidata presidencial Sandra Jovel recibida con júbilo por las bases del Partido FUERZA". El metropolitano (in Spanish). 21 June 2026.
  25. ↑ "Análisis | Resultados del Radar Político Guatemala 2026". Canal Antigua (in Spanish). 2026-08-07. Retrieved 2026-08-15.
  26. ↑ "Encuesta de la empresa mexicana Datos Duros mide el pulso electoral de Guatemala". Publinews (in Spanish). 2026-07-31. Retrieved 2026-08-15.
  27. ↑ "Análisis | Radar Electoral 2026: ¿Cómo se mueve Guatemala rumbo a las elecciones generales de 2027?". Canal Antigua (in Spanish). 2026-07-08. Retrieved 2026-07-08.
  28. ↑ "Análisis | Radar Político Guatemala 2026: ¿Qué figuras dominan la conversación pública rumbo al ciclo electoral 2027?". Canal Antigua (in Spanish). 2026-06-08. Retrieved 2026-06-09.
  29. ↑ "Encuesta: Torres, Pineda y Arzú lideran intención de voto y Thelma Aldana emerge en cuarto lugar". Con Criterio (in Spanish). 2026-06-04. Retrieved 2026-06-09.
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