Manifold (prediction market)

Manifold
The logo for Manifold Markets, consisting of a minimalist purple line drawing of a paper crane
Available inEnglish
FoundedDecember 2021 (December 2021)
Founder(s)Austin Chen, James Grugett, Stephen Grugett
URLmanifold.markets
Current statusActive

Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is an online prediction market platform.[1][2] Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'Mana'.[3] Topics on Manifold have included the 2024 United States presidential election and the Oscars,[4] but markets can be created by any user and can cover topics as specific as "whether a particular user will read War and Peace this year".[5]

History

Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. Stephen Grugett is the current CEO of the organization.[6]

Manifold received seed funding from the Astral Codex Ten grant program.[7] It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund,[8] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.[9]

In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference, in Berkeley, California. The conference was hosted again in 2024, 2025 and 2026.[10] Attendees have included Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Richard Hanania, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Robert Miles, and Destiny,[7] along with Shayne Coplan and Tarek Mansour.[5]

Market structure

The website uses a play money currency called Mana. Markets use a version of the Uniswap automated market maker, known as "maniswap".[11]

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Why a "room-temperature superconductor" would be a huge deal". Vox. 7 August 2023. Archived from the original on 2023-08-31. Retrieved 2023-08-31. Prediction markets have seen wildly varying odds as participants bet for and against the material working out.
  2. ↑ Frick, Walter. "Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets". Nieman Lab. Archived from the original on 2023-06-03. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
  3. ↑ Taylor, Michael. "Taylor: Can you see into the future? Online prediction markets can — and they let you bet on it". San Antonio Express-News. Retrieved 6 February 2024.
  4. ↑ Henshall, Will (2024-02-14). "Meet the People Making Actual Bets on Love". TIME. Retrieved 2024-02-14.
  5. 1 2 Beam, Christopher (2026-06-30). "The Original Prediction Market Boosters Have Qualms About the Boom". Bloomberg Businessweek.
  6. ↑ Richard Hanania. "Mana from Heaven | Stephen Grugett, James Grugett, & Richard Hanania". CSPI (Podcast). Retrieved 2023-08-31.
  7. 1 2 Roose, Kevin (2023-10-08). "The Wager That Betting Can Change the World". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-10-08.
  8. ↑ Ashworth, Louis (2022-12-19). "How to spend a million dollars, by Sam Bankman-Fried". Financial Times. Archived from the original on 2023-03-24. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
  9. ↑ "SFF-2022-H1 S-Process Recommendations Announcement". Survival and Flourishing.Fund (SFF). Archived from the original on 2023-08-30. Retrieved 2023-08-30.
  10. ↑ "Manifest". www.manifest.is. Retrieved 2025-06-26.
  11. ↑ Frongillo, Rafael; Papireddygari, Maneesha; Waggoner, Bo (2023). "An Axiomatic Characterization of CFMMs and Equivalence to Prediction Markets". arXiv:2302.00196 [cs.GT].
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