July 2025 Japan megaquake prophecy

Shake map of the maximum JMA seismic intensities by prefecture for the 11 March 2011 Tōhoku earthquake; the Tokara Islands are in the insert to the upper left

July 2025 Japan megaquake prophecy is a rumor that began at the end of 2024 that a great earthquake would occur in Japan in July 2025, based on a purported prophecy in the 1999 manga The Future I Saw by Ryo Tatsuki. Its spread in several Asian countries caused a notable decline in holiday travel to Japan. Seismologists discounted the prediction.

Background

External image
image icon The manga cover of The Future I Saw. One of the Japanese texts reads, "great disaster in March 2011" (Japanese: 大災害は2011年3月).[1] The text only appeared on the book's cover, and the prediction is not mentioned anywhere inside the book itself.[2]

The Future I Saw is a manga written by Ryo Tatsuki and first published by Asahi Sonorama[a] in 1999. It is presented as the author's dream diary. Some media noted the manga after the March 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, when Tatsuki received messages noting that a diary entry illustrated on the manga's cover had predicted a disaster in March 2011,[4][5] it didn't have noticeable attention at the time.[6] Tatsuki had already forgotten about the text by that time.[6]

A reprinted version was published by Asuka Shinsha in October 2020, which renewed attention to the out-of-print edition, with some second-hand copies selling for 500,000 yen.[7] The attention prompted a Tatsuki impersonator to make false claims in interviews and magazines such as having had predicted the Great Hanshin earthquake and the death of Ozaki Yutaka. The impersonator eventually claimed that Mount Fuji would erupt in August, which did not happen.

During this period, the Japanese TV show Unbelievable began producing dramas based on mysterious experiences published by Asuka Shinsha. Tatsuki contacted the publisher, and a new, expanded version was published on October 1, 2021.[6] The reprint became the best-selling book weekly in Japan on May 13, 2025.[8]

The reprints included the text "The real disaster will strike in July 2025" from another of Tatsuki's dreams, with Tatsuki claiming that said event would be a massive fissure opening in the Philippine Sea, causing a tsunami "three times as tall as those from the Tohoku earthquake" that would destroy Japan. [9][10][11]

Impact

An opinion poll conducted by SKY Perfect JSAT in June 2025 showed that 49.4% of the Japanese public had heard rumors of the prophecy.[12]

The number of videos discussing the prophecy started to rise around 2023 and began spreading in the Sinophone world, particularly in Hong Kong and Taiwan.[13][14] The resulting notable decline in holiday bookings to Japan forced Greater Bay Airlines to reduce the number of flights to Sendai Airport and Tokushima Airport; Hong Kong Airlines went so far as to shut down flights to Sendai completely as of May 31.[15][16][17] Bookings from Hong Kong declined 50% from the previous year and by 83% from late June to early July.[14]

The rumor became a viral phenomenon, spreading to the Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam. Flight ticket prices in Korea dropped below 100,000 won in June 2025.[18] Posts about or warning against travel to Japan were "overflowing" on social media in Thailand and Vietnam.[4][19] Singaporean tourists, on the other hand, were unfazed by the prophecy; the number of orders to Japan on both Trip.com and Traveloka did not decrease.[20]

The economic impact was such that it came to the attention of the Anglosphere in late May, with coverage from The Guardian, CNN, etc., and the Francophonie on June 30, with coverage from Le Monde.[4][5]

July 2025

From June 25 to July 4, an earthquake swarm occurred near the Tokara Islands in far southwest Japan. The largest of these, on July 4, was at the lower end of 6 on the Japan Meteorological Agency seismic intensity scale (JMA scale).[21] This earthquake swarm was the most intense in the region since 1995.[22] Thirty-one residents requested evacuation to Mainland Japan following several earthquakes of 5+ on the JMA scale, (approximately VII on the Mercalli scale[b][24][25]). This series of earthquakes was eventually connected to the rumors of disasters in July.

On July 5, 2025, when the prophecy didn't come true, the entry "Nothing happened in Japan" (Chinese: 日本无事发生) became the first trend on Sina Weibo.[26]

A large megathrust earthquake did affect Japan later in the month, on July 30, at a different location. Tsunami waves from the Mw 8.8 2025 Kamchatka earthquake off the eastern coast of Russia impacted Hokkaido at 10:40 am JST.[27][28] The event sparked some renewed interest in the manga, although Tatsuki herself had previously advised "Don't be overly swayed by my dreams."[29]

Reactions

Fact-check columns on Rappler and the Mainichi Shimbun both stated that scientists cannot predict where and when earthquakes and tsunamis will strike. The Japan Meteorological Agency described accurate prediction of earthquakes as a "hoax".[19][30] Shengji Wei, Assistant Professor of Asian School of the Environment at Nanyang Technological University, indicated that predicting earthquakes accurately is impossible with current technology.[31]

Ayaka Ebita, director of the Earthquake and Tsunami Observations Division in Japan Meteorological Agency, responded that earthquakes were "totally coincidental" with the prophecy on July 5 given the geologic conditions of Japan, and urged people to "base their judgment on science".[32][33]

Huang Hsin-Hua, associate research fellow of the Institute of Earth Sciences in Academia Sinica, noted that earthquakes occur at the boundaries of plates. For earthquakes to occur at the center of a plate, as the book suggested, does not match the current scientific evidence.[34]

A film based on Tatsuki's predictions named 4:18 AM, July 5, 2025 has been announced; neither the publisher nor Tatsuki herself were related to either its production or promotion. The publisher also stated that the while Tatsuki had noted that the dream itself was around "4:18 AM, July 5, 2021", the premonition of disaster in her dream only mentioned "July 2025".[35]

Further reading

  • ""The Future I Saw" - Prophetic Manga by Ryo Tatsuki". RoYuMi - Japan Hub. August 17, 2021. Retrieved July 9, 2025.
  • Salcedo, Mary Joy (July 5, 2025). "DOST: No scientific basis for Japan manga's megaquake prediction in PH". Cebu Daily News. Retrieved July 11, 2025.

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Defuncted in September 2007.[3]
  2. ↑ A strange roaring from the sea before the earthquakes has been reported, and the quakes and been strong and constant enough to substantially interrupt sleep.[23]

References

  1. ↑ Adelstein, Jake (July 4, 2025). "July 5 Is the End of the World. Come Celebrate With Me on July 6". Unseen Japan. Retrieved July 9, 2025.
  2. ↑ 漫画家・たつき諒さんの「7月、大災害」が拡散 信じたくなる心理は. 毎日新聞 (in Japanese). Retrieved May 17, 2025.
  3. ↑ 朝日ソノラマ、9月に営業停止 「時代の流れに抗し切れず」. ITmedia NEWS (in Japanese). Retrieved May 17, 2025.
  4. 1 2 3 Lau, Mai Takiguchi, Chris (May 19, 2025). "A Japanese manga claims a natural disaster is imminent. Now, some tourists are canceling their trips". CNN. Retrieved May 24, 2025.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link) CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  5. 1 2 "Au Japon, une mangaka prédit une catastrophe début juillet et fait chuter le tourisme". July 1, 2025 – via Le Monde.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  6. 1 2 3 「文藝春秋」編集部 (December 27, 2022). 「本当の大災難は2025年7月にやってくる」東日本大震災の予言が的中…漫画家・たつき諒が語った"予知夢の意味" | 災害大国を生きる. 文春オンライン (in Japanese). Retrieved May 17, 2025.
  7. ↑ 中古本に50万円の値がついた幻の「予言マンガ」復刻版がベストセラーランキングに登場. October 16, 2021. Retrieved July 9, 2025.
  8. ↑ 7月の大災害を"予言"した『私が見た未来』ベストセラー1位に 同作モチーフ映画には発行元が「関与しておりません」と"注意喚起"も［エンターテインメントベストセラー］. bookbang (in Japanese). May 17, 2025. Retrieved July 9, 2025.
  9. ↑ Klawans, Justin (May 22, 2025). "A manga predicting a natural disaster is affecting tourism to Japan". The Week US.
  10. ↑ 「2025年7月5日に隕石落下で大災害」は本当にあり得る？ JAXA宇宙研・藤本正樹所長にとことん聞いてみた. Newsweek Japan (in Japanese). May 2, 2025. Retrieved July 9, 2025.
  11. ↑ SNSで「2025年7月5日」がトレンド入り。漫画家の予知夢に出た「大震災」「巨大津波」の予言は都市伝説か現実か徹底検証. まぐまぐニュース！ (in Japanese). March 31, 2025. Retrieved May 17, 2025.
  12. ↑ "Manga-Predicted Megaquake? Baseless Rumors of July Disaster in Japan Deter Some Visitors". nippon.com. June 27, 2025.
  13. ↑ 「日本で7月に…」根拠なき"災害予言"が拡散 専門家の見解は | NHK. NHKニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved July 9, 2025.
  14. 1 2 McCurry, Justin (May 26, 2025). "Holiday bookings to Japan are down - could a 90s manga comic's earthquake prediction be to blame?". The Guardian.
  15. ↑ "Hong Kong Airlines Discontinues Sendai Service in late-May 2025". AeroRoutes. Retrieved May 24, 2025.
  16. ↑ Townsend, Verity (May 23, 2025). "Manga's July 2025 Japan Disaster Prediction Shakes Up Fear of 'The Big One' — and Some Are Even Abandoning Their Holiday Plans". IGN. Retrieved May 24, 2025.
  17. ↑ 7月の日本大地震の噂、香港で旅行先変更の動き | 香港BSニュース. 香港でのビジネス進出や会社運営サポートは香港BS (in Japanese). Retrieved May 17, 2025.
  18. ↑ CHON, KWON-PIL (June 28, 2025). "Is it safe to travel to Japan? Korean travelers worry amid July quake rumors". koreajoongangdaily.joins.com. Retrieved July 9, 2025.
  19. 1 2 "Fact Check: Earthquakes can't be predicted, contrary to post claiming July 5 tremor". Rappler. March 7, 2025. Retrieved July 10, 2025.
  20. ↑ 王辉雯. "国人前往日本旅游未受大地震预言影响". www.zaobao.com.sg (in Simplified Chinese). Retrieved July 9, 2025.
  21. ↑ "Over 1,000 Earthquakes in Less than Two Weeks Shake Japan's Southern Tokara Islands". nippon.com. July 4, 2025.
  22. ↑ Speed, Jessica (July 4, 2025). "Residents of Tokara Islands begin evacuation as seismic swarm continues". The Japan Times.
  23. ↑ "Japan: Tokara islanders sleepless after 900 quakes in two weeks". www.bbc.com. July 3, 2025.
  24. ↑ トカラ列島・悪石島、新たな避難希望31人 震度5強「インパクト」：朝日新聞. 朝日新聞 (in Japanese). July 5, 2025. Retrieved July 5, 2025.
  25. ↑ トカラ列島で震度6弱 頻発する揺れ…いつまで続く？ 南海トラフ巨大地震とは"関連なし"も…「2030～40年に発生する可能性が高い」 京大名誉教授が"地震への備え"改めて呼びかけ【識者解説】（ABCニュース）. Yahoo!ニュース (in Japanese). Archived from the original on July 4, 2025. Retrieved July 5, 2025.
  26. ↑ "大地震谣言未应验 日本无事发生登微博热搜榜首". www.zaobao.com.sg (in Simplified Chinese). Retrieved July 9, 2025.
  27. ↑ "Widespread tsunami warnings after magnitude 8.8 quake off Russia's east coast". BBC News. Retrieved July 30, 2025.
  28. ↑ "New Baba Vanga's July 2025 prediction come true? Japan, Russia hit by Tsunami after massive 8.7 quake off Kamchatka". India Times. Retrieved August 1, 2025.
  29. ↑ Caine, Bill (August 3, 2025). "As Tsunami Waves Swept the Pacific, a Manga Prophecy Gripped Asia".
  30. ↑ ＜1分で解説＞「トカラの法則」「5日に大災害」SNS信じていい?. Mainichi Shimbun (in Japanese). Retrieved July 9, 2025.
  31. ↑ 周依琳 (May 29, 2025). "日本大地震将临 有迹可循或危言耸听？| 世界大解说". 联合早报 (in Chinese). 新加坡. Archived from the original on June 30, 2025. Retrieved July 6, 2025.
  32. ↑ 「7月5日に大災難」"うわさ"の日に震度5強…気象庁「全くの偶然。日本では1年で2000回の地震。因果関係なし」. Yahoo!ニュース (in Japanese). July 5, 2025. Retrieved July 5, 2025.
  33. ↑ 気象庁会見 悪石島"当面 最大震度6弱程度の地震に注意を". NHK NEWS WEB (in Japanese). July 5, 2025. Archived from the original on July 5, 2025. Retrieved July 5, 2025.
  34. ↑ 馬麗昕. "網傳7/5大地震讓台港菲陸地連在一起是偽科學". 台灣事實查核中心 (in Chinese (Taiwan)). Retrieved July 8, 2025.
  35. ↑ 7月の大災害を"予言"した『私が見た未来』ベストセラー1位に 同作モチーフ映画には発行元が「関与しておりません」と"注意喚起"も［エンターテインメントベストセラー］ | ニュース. Book Bang －ブックバン－. Retrieved May 17, 2025.
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