Opinion polling
| List of polls |
|
Delegate count: 55 Pledged, 5 Unpledged
Winner: Hillary Clinton
Primary date: May 17, 2016
| Poll source |
Date |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
Other |
| Official Primary results[2] |
May 17, 2016 |
Hillary Clinton 46.8% |
Bernie Sanders 46.3% |
|
Others / Uncommitted 6.9% |
| Public Policy Polling[3]
Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 501 |
March 1–2, 2016 |
Hillary Clinton 43% |
Bernie Sanders 38% |
|
Others / Undecided 19% |
| Public Policy Polling[4]
Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 610 |
June 18–21, 2015 |
Hillary Clinton 56% |
Bernie Sanders 12% |
Jim Webb 7% |
Lincoln Chafee 5%, Martin O'Malley 3%, Not sure 18% |
|
Results
Results by county
| County[7] |
Clinton |
Votes |
Sanders |
Votes |
| Adair | 49.6% | 466 | 43.7% | 410 |
| Allen | 46.0% | 427 | 47.4% | 440 |
| Anderson | 36.0% | 1,132 | 52.4% | 1,649 |
| Ballard | 32.0% | 405 | 52.0% | 659 |
| Barren | 37.2% | 1,979 | 49.9% | 2,653 |
| Bath | 45.6% | 628 | 46.6% | 641 |
| Bell | 44.7% | 567 | 45.6% | 578 |
| Boone | 51.8% | 2,932 | 44.1% | 2,496 |
| Bourbon | 46.5% | 1,109 | 45.6% | 1,087 |
| Boyd | 44.7% | 2,193 | 46.1% | 2,262 |
| Boyle | 49.9% | 1,648 | 43.9% | 1,451 |
| Bracken | 32.5% | 251 | 54.9% | 424 |
| Breathitt | 33.9% | 1,123 | 51.8% | 1,716 |
| Breckinridge | 45.9% | 877 | 45.8% | 875 |
| Bullitt | 44.4% | 2,907 | 49.1% | 3,210 |
| Butler | 51.1% | 238 | 42.1% | 196 |
| Caldwell | 34.3% | 570 | 52.1% | 866 |
| Calloway | 35.8% | 1,460 | 55.0% | 2,239 |
| Campbell | 48.1% | 3,169 | 47.5% | 3,133 |
| Carlisle | 25.6% | 206 | 57.5% | 462 |
| Carroll | 41.5% | 481 | 49.4% | 573 |
| Carter | 39.1% | 800 | 51.4% | 1,051 |
| Casey | 50.7% | 210 | 44.0% | 182 |
| Christian | 50.2% | 2,437 | 39.9% | 1,936 |
| Clark | 45.5% | 1,810 | 47.5% | 1,888 |
| Clay | 48.4% | 184 | 41.6% | 158 |
| Clinton | 57.9% | 151 | 35.6% | 93 |
| Crittenden | 35.6% | 240 | 51.0% | 344 |
| Cumberland | 44.8% | 78 | 50.0% | 87 |
| Daviess | 45.5% | 5,066 | 46.6% | 5,188 |
| Edmonson | 49.5% | 275 | 47.1% | 262 |
| Elliott | 35.7% | 301 | 52.6% | 443 |
| Estill | 47.6% | 446 | 47.0% | 440 |
| Fayette | 52.8% | 20,014 | 45.0% | 17,048 |
| Fleming | 40.7% | 627 | 52.3% | 806 |
| Floyd | 31.4% | 2,327 | 54.1% | 4,010 |
| Franklin | 45.1% | 5,218 | 46.6% | 5,398 |
| Fulton | 46.6% | 315 | 36.2% | 245 |
| Gallatin | 39.5% | 260 | 51.6% | 340 |
| Garrard | 50.5% | 434 | 45.0% | 387 |
| Grant | 40.9% | 594 | 49.2% | 715 |
| Graves | 31.8% | 1,631 | 51.3% | 2,631 |
| Grayson | 49.9% | 705 | 44.6% | 630 |
| Green | 40.4% | 284 | 51.2% | 360 |
| Greenup | 43.8% | 1,517 | 47.7% | 1,655 |
| Hancock | 42.5% | 491 | 49.7% | 573 |
| Hardin | 47.8% | 4,359 | 46.2% | 4,208 |
| Harlan | 25.9% | 451 | 62.8% | 1,092 |
| Harrison | 41.4% | 886 | 49.5% | 1,059 |
| Hart | 39.7% | 817 | 51.6% | 1,062 |
| Henderson | 43.4% | 2,887 | 42.9% | 2,850 |
| Henry | 40.6% | 781 | 49.8% | 958 |
| Hickman | 32.5% | 209 | 46.6% | 300 |
| Hopkins | 32.7% | 1,690 | 52.2% | 2,696 |
| Jackson | 35.9% | 78 | 59.0% | 128 |
| Jefferson | 57.3% | 64,090 | 40.3% | 45,048 |
| Jessamine | 44.2% | 1,875 | 49.8% | 2,113 |
| Johnson | 32.9% | 444 | 55.5% | 749 |
| Kenton | 49.0% | 5,146 | 46.5% | 4,880 |
| Knott | 30.8% | 583 | 58.8% | 1,114 |
| Knox | 47.9% | 520 | 46.4% | 504 |
| LaRue | 34.7% | 612 | 51.6% | 910 |
| Laurel | 49.1% | 845 | 45.9% | 791 |
| Lawrence | 35.3% | 444 | 52.4% | 659 |
| Lee | 42.9% | 199 | 48.3% | 224 |
| Leslie | 43.8% | 64 | 52.7% | 77 |
| Letcher | 26.7% | 838 | 56.9% | 1,788 |
| Lewis | 51.7% | 211 | 37.0% | 151 |
| Lincoln | 47.7% | 779 | 45.5% | 742 |
| Livingston | 34.4% | 400 | 52.4% | 610 |
| Logan | 43.8% | 1,077 | 46.0% | 1,131 |
| Lyon | 40.5% | 497 | 45.7% | 561 |
| Madison | 41.6% | 3,441 | 53.0% | 4,385 |
| Magoffin | 42.7% | 511 | 52.3% | 626 |
| Marion | 50.3% | 1,162 | 42.6% | 983 |
| Marshall | 34.7% | 1,577 | 50.8% | 2,308 |
| Martin | 31.2% | 104 | 57.4% | 191 |
| Mason | 44.1% | 727 | 47.0% | 775 |
| McCracken | 43.8% | 3,334 | 46.5% | 3,541 |
| McCreary | 41.9% | 169 | 50.4% | 203 |
| McLean | 38.1% | 477 | 50.1% | 628 |
| Meade | 41.9% | 1,312 | 49.2% | 1,541 |
| Menifee | 44.8% | 311 | 46.5% | 323 |
| Mercer | 39.1% | 988 | 52.6% | 1,331 |
| Metcalfe | 41.7% | 506 | 47.9% | 582 |
| Monroe | 50.8% | 126 | 44.0% | 109 |
| Montgomery | 45.8% | 1,289 | 47.0% | 1,322 |
| Morgan | 31.6% | 544 | 57.3% | 988 |
| Muhlenberg | 43.3% | 1,544 | 45.7% | 1,632 |
| Nelson | 47.6% | 2,395 | 46.6% | 2,345 |
| Nicholas | 42.2% | 353 | 50.2% | 420 |
| Ohio | 41.3% | 778 | 50.0% | 943 |
| Oldham | 52.4% | 2,730 | 44.4% | 2,315 |
| Owen | 34.6% | 453 | 55.0% | 720 |
| Owsley | 43.3% | 77 | 51.1% | 91 |
| Pendleton | 36.6% | 388 | 51.5% | 546 |
| Perry | 30.0% | 839 | 59.6% | 1,666 |
| Pike | 26.1% | 2,335 | 54.3% | 4,848 |
| Powell | 42.4% | 623 | 50.7% | 744 |
| Pulaski | 47.4% | 1,169 | 46.6% | 1,148 |
| Robertson | 32.0% | 95 | 59.6% | 177 |
| Rockcastle | 45.7% | 238 | 48.8% | 254 |
| Rowan | 44.0% | 1,170 | 51.2% | 1,363 |
| Russell | 48.2% | 343 | 46.7% | 332 |
| Scott | 48.6% | 2,505 | 46.4% | 2,394 |
| Shelby | 47.8% | 2,195 | 44.5% | 2,044 |
| Simpson | 45.9% | 708 | 45.1% | 695 |
| Spencer | 42.7% | 673 | 51.2% | 806 |
| Taylor | 50.3% | 949 | 44.8% | 844 |
| Todd | 35.1% | 333 | 53.5% | 507 |
| Trigg | 40.8% | 604 | 48.3% | 715 |
| Trimble | 38.3% | 415 | 50.0% | 542 |
| Union | 29.9% | 672 | 49.3% | 1,106 |
| Warren | 44.9% | 4,829 | 49.9% | 5,365 |
| Washington | 47.0% | 601 | 45.5% | 582 |
| Wayne | 55.6% | 502 | 39.4% | 356 |
| Webster | 28.7% | 693 | 48.5% | 1,169 |
| Whitley | 52.5% | 522 | 41.1% | 409 |
| Wolfe | 42.1% | 414 | 50.7% | 499 |
| Woodford | 46.3% | 1,862 | 47.7% | 1,918 |
| Total | 46.8% | 212,550 | 46.3% | 210,626 |
Analysis
Clinton's strength with conservative white voters in the Appalachia region, including Coal Country, had clearly regressed since 2008; she had beaten Barack Obama 65–29 in Kentucky eight years earlier, and only beat rival Bernie Sanders 47–46 in 2016. She ran strongly in Louisville, where the African American population is highest, but lost many of the Eastern Kentucky Coalfield counties in the state to Bernie Sanders, who had won a large victory in neighboring West Virginia the week prior. Sanders also won many counties in the Jackson Purchase area. Notably, in 2012, almost all of the Sanders counties voted for the "Uncommitted" ballot option in a protest vote against Obama.